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Cape Cod Housing Market Analysis

A housing market analysis completed for Cape Cod Commission puts numbers to the existing supply and demand, and look 10 years down the road.

The study provides detailed measurements of existing housing shortages and forecasted supply-and-demand gaps over the next 10 years and serves as a basis for regional strategies to meet identified needs.

The Commission engaged Crane Associates, Inc., in collaboration with Economic and Policy Resources, Inc., to develop a Regional Housing Market analysis of Cape Cod and for each town on Cape Cod. Recognizing the region’s unique needs, sub regional opportunities and constraints of the Upper Cape, Mid Cape, Lower Cape and Outer Cape are also part of the analysis.

The study’s objective is to show what housing products are obtainable to households at a range of income levels up to 160% of median income without overspending housing budgets (generally considered 30-40% of household income). The supply of these housing products, compared to the regional demand for them, will show any gaps that exist between housing availability and demand for households of different demographics.

 


Final Report

Over the next several months, the Commission staff will issue briefs covering different areas of the report. These will take closer looks at the economic and demographic forecast, income sources, and seasonal and year-round ownership patterns, among others. The data is explored on a town-by-town basis, and requires a nuanced approach to its interpretation on housing market constraints and opportunities. Commission staff is available to help communities use this data to support local and regional housing supply strategies.

The accompanying definitions require special attention, as the analysis uses terms and concepts differently from standard HUD definitions. The authors took a deep look at the overall economy and housing market and utilized a variety of data sources to develop economic and demographic forecasts specific to this study. The nexus between a broad set of drivers – the macroeconomy, migration patterns and the housing market – were considered.

The Crane/EPR methodology is appropriate to support the study of regional and local housing supply for a long-term planning horizon. Users need to carefully evaluate and understand the methodology when using this study and its underlying data for other purposes.

Using This Study

 

The Regional Housing Market Analysis and 10-Year Forecast of Housing Supply and Demand for Barnstable County, Massachusetts, prepared by Crane Associates, Inc. and Economic Policy Resources (EPR), Burlington Vermont was supported by the Cape Cod Commission staff and a review panel of local and regional advisors. The review panel had representation from the banking and homebuilding industries, human services, young professionals, the Cape’s aging population/gerontologists, expert economic and demographic analysts and local and regional public policy leadership. We are grateful for their time and dedication

We are most appreciative of the of detailed data collection, analysis and recommendation provided by Crane Associates Inc., and EPR. This report serves as the start of our research on how expected demographic changes influence the Cape Cod housing market. Readers should take time to digest the report, data and analysis. The data provides the foundation for updating the Regional Policy Plan. 

Definitions

Definitions Page - As they relate to the Regional Housing Market Analysis and 10-Year Forecast of Housing Supply and Demand for Barnstable County, MA, prepared by Crane Associates. Inc., and Economic and Policy Resources, Inc.

Affordability Gap - Units: The difference between the number of housing units demanded and the number of housing units supplied for a given housing type (by tenure) for a given time period (typically a “year”).

Affordable Housing: Housing in which the household is not housing cost stressed according to the definition of housing cost stressed households from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”). HUD defines housing cost stressed households as those paying more than 30 percent of its household income for gross housing costs including utilities (Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development).

Cumulative Demand: Aggregation of housing unit demand by tenure (owner or renter), geographical unit (e.g. town-municipality, county) and time period.

Employment (Jobs): Paid full- and part-time wage and salaried workers and sole proprietors (self-employed), recorded by place of business where the job/employment opportunity is located (Basic Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce).

Housing Demand: A market concept relating to the type (e.g. owner or renter) and number of housing units that resident households will choose to occupy based on ability to pay and preference of living situation.

Housing Supply: A market concept relating to the type (e.g. owner or renter) and number of housing units made available for occupancy in the current housing inventory (or housing unit stock) and prospectively via newly built (i.e., starts and completions), as adjusted for unit losses from demolitions or other destruction (such as from fire and/or floods and other natural disasters).

Housing Unit: A house, an apartment, a mobile home or trailer, a group of rooms or a single room occupied as separate living quarters, or if vacant, intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which occupants live separately from other individuals in the building and which have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall (Basic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census).

Median Household Income: Household income is the combined gross income of all the members 15 years and older living in a housing unit regardless of tenure (owner or renter). Median household income divides household income distribution in a geographic area (e.g., town, city, county, state) into two equal groups, one having household incomes above the median and the other having household incomes below the median (Basic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census).

Owner-Occupied Housing Unit: A year-round housing unit is owner occupied if the owner or co-owner lives in the unit even if it is mortgaged or not fully paid for (Basic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census).

Renter-Occupied Housing Unit: A year-round housing unit that is not owner-occupied, whether rented for cash rent or occupied without payment of cash rent (Basic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census).

Seasonal Housing Unit: A housing unit occupied for less than 12 months annually and does not serve as a primary living space.

Tenure: The financial arrangements under which someone has the right to live in a house or apartment (owner or renter). 

Review Panel

Jan Mutchler, PhD

  • Professor, Department of Gerontology, McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies, and Director, Center for Social and Demographic Research on Aging, Gerontology Institute at the University of Massachusetts Boston

Michael Goodman, PhD

  • Professor of Public Policy, Executive Director of the Public Policy Center, and Acting Chair of the Department of Public Policy at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.

Matthew Teague, President

  • REEF Cape Cod's Home Builder
  • Home Builders & Remodelers Association of Cape Cod, Inc.

Robert Talerman

  • First Executive Vice President and Executive Lending Officer, Cape Cod Five Cents Savings Bank

Anne Van Vleck

  • Director of Development Housing Assistance Corporation,
  • Former Executive Director, Cape Cod Young Professionals

Elizabeth Albert

  • Director, Barnstable County Human Services

Susan “Su” Moran, Esq.

  • Business Lawyer, Realtor, Board of Selectmen Falmouth, Cape Selectmen & Councilors Association, Cape Cod Economic Development Council, Barnstable County Assembly of Delegates

Michelle Jarusiewicz

  • Community Housing Specialist & Grant Admin
  • Town of Provincetown

Data Tables

Brief summary of Data Tables provided by Crane/EPR in support of the 2017 Housing Market Analysis

2015 Affordability Gap Tables –This is a comprehensive set of tables representing the culmination of the demographic and economic forecast and establishment of household growth for the region. The tables include tabs for Barnstable County, each subregion and for each town showing incomes, affordable home and rental values, estimated unit demand; estimated housing supply and affordability gap (in units) in 2015. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report methodology and sources)

2025 Affordability Gap Tables –This is a comprehensive set of tables representing the culmination of the demographic and economic forecast for 2025 and establishment of household growth for the region. The tables include tabs for Barnstable County, each subregion and for each town showing incomes, affordable home and rental values, estimated unit demand; estimated housing supply and affordability gap (in units) projected in 2025. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Owners 2015 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the maximum affordable ownership value such as Monthly Income, Monthly Tax, Insurance, Utility and Mortgage payments, for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable House Price in 2015 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Owners 2020 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the projected maximum affordable ownership value such as Monthly Income, Monthly Tax, Insurance, Utility and Mortgage payments, for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable House Price in 2020 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Owners 2025 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the projected maximum affordable ownership value such as Monthly Income, Monthly Tax, Insurance, Utility and Mortgage payments, for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable House Price in 2025 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Renters 2015 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the maximum affordable rental rate such as Monthly Income, Utility and rental rates for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable Annual Rental rate in 2015 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and for sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Renters 2020 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the projected maximum affordable monthly rental rate such as Monthly Income, Utility and rental rates for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable Annual Rental rate in 2020 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Barnstable Co. Affordability Calcs_Renters 2025 - These tables provide the details associated with establishing the projected maximum affordable monthly rental rate such as Monthly Income, Utility and rental rates for all wage ranges (50%,80%, 100% and 120%) of Median Household Income (please see definitions page) attributable to an Affordable Annual Rental rate in 2025 for the same wage ranges. Data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each sub-region of Cape Cod and every town. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

CES Utilities- Calculations of Monthly Utility cost for each Town, Barnstable County and each sub-region of Cape Cod. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Final Forecast Employment – Provides total jobs count from 1980-2015 and jobs projected by Crane/EPR from 2016-2025 for Barnstable County with separate tabs for each town and each sub-region of Cape Cod. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report appendix for methodology and sources)

Final Forecasts Households- The Demographic and Economic Analysis prepared by Crane/EPR and Associates to develop household forecasts for each year from 2015-2025. This data is available in separate tabs for Barnstable County, each Cape Cod sub-region and every town and provides household formation rates back to 1990. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report appendix for methodology and sources)

Final Revised Population Forecast - Provides total population from 1980-2015 and population projected by Crane/EPR from 2016-2025 for Barnstable County with separate tabs for each town and sub-region. Forecast was revised to reflected updated Census data) (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report appendix for methodology and sources)

HH Income Forecast – Household Income Forecast prepared by Crane/EPR 2015-2025 for Barnstable County, each Cape Cod sub-region and every Town in Barnstable County. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report appendix for methodology and sources)

Median Income Hard Cell Data – Provides the estimated median household income for each wage category and range (50%,805, 100% and 120% of Median Household Income) and the number of units needed for each range. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Owners Utilities- Calculations of Monthly utility expense for owners in each Town, Barnstable County and each Cape Cod sub-region. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report methodology and for sources)

Renters Utilities- Calculations of Monthly utility expense for owners in each Town, Barnstable County and each Cape Cod sub-region. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Revised Final Detailed Tables – Housing Unit Demand- A comprehensive summary of the Total Housing units by type and tenure including second homes and projected household formation from 1990-2014 and including forecast Household Formation and Housing Unit Demand prepared by Crane/EPR for 2015-2025. (prepared by Crane/EPR please see report for methodology and sources)

Tenure by Income with Town Tabs - Housing Tenure (owner or renter) by income from 2009-2015; available for every town, Cape Cod sub-region and Barnstable County. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report for methodology and sources)

Town Tax Rate Summary - 2001-2017 Tax Rates for all towns including residential, commercial, personal property taxes and water districts. (prepared by Crane/EPR, see report appendix for methodology and sources)

 

 

Contact

Heather Harper
Community Design/ Affordable Housing Specialist
508-744-1225

Project Files

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