Housing Supply Forecast

Net Housing Demand

Affordability Gap

Affordable vs. Median  Value

Peak Housing Gap

External forces

External forces affecting market conditions on the Cape are not present in most other housing markets.

Since the mid-2000s, wide macro-economic forces helped shape and change Cape Cod's housing market. These include Boston's strong metropolitan economy, the financial crisis and housing crash of 2009, retiring baby-boomers and increased competition from second home buyers.

The global real estate and financial crisis of 2009 altered the balance between seasonal housing and year-round housing for the foreseeable future. The outlook shows growth in second homes, both by percentage and actual numbers, will outpace growth in year-round homes

 

 

Seasonal Effects

Among the assumptions in the forecast is that housing will be available for those seeking to fill newly-created jobs. That's important when considering the forecast for housing growth. Over the next 10 years, seasonal units are expected to increase at more than twice the rate of year-round units. A majority of the 4% growth in the total housing stock is expected to serve seasonal house buyers.

 

What's Affordable?

The affordability gap is an indication of housing stress. It represents the number of existing households spending 30% or more of monthly income on housing, and are therefore expected to be home cost burdened.

From the 2015 baseline year, the study shows the greatest housing stress is felt by those earning 80% or less than Barnstable County's median income. In 10 years, the effect on the lower end of earners increases and deserves continued attention. More striking, however, is how housing stress climbs through higher tiers of income. By 2025, the greatest increase in burdened households are with those earning 100% to 120% of the projected median income.

If this was a normal market

In a normal market, when total housing stock increases faster than household growth, there shouldn’t be a housing shortage. But this is not a normal market. The influence of seasonal buyers on the demand and supply of existing and new housing units creates competition from outside the immediate region. The financial resources of second home buyers typically far exceed those of year-round buyers.